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53rd Program Year — Fourth Meeting

December 12, 2001

Albuquerque Petroleum Club

The Next Test: Terrorist States with Strategic Weapons

Henry Sokolski

Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

Although our current focus is on the war against terrorism, the next test of US security may not come from terrorists, but from other nations, many of which will increasingly be armed with strategic warheads and long-range missiles. In the post-Cold War world of the last decade, a period in which the democratic wave seemed inevitable, the US believed that all that was necessary to complement liberal trends was international investment and occasional, limited military operations. Now, getting to the end of history seems more arduous. Whichever way Russia or China go, democratic or despotic, can no longer be taken for granted. Nor can the United States continue to deal with terrorist states, such as North Korea, Iran, and Iraq, as though they were already contained and developing in our direction. Henry Sokolski will discuss his recommendations for redoubling US nonproliferation efforts, in order to deal effectively with this “next test”.

Henry Sokolski is the Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based nonprofit organization founded in l994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues for academics, policy makers, and the media. He also teaches graduate courses on proliferation issues at Boston University's Institute of World Politics in Washington, DC. Mr. Sokolski was a political appointee of the first Bush Administration, serving as Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Prior to this, he worked in the Defense Secretary's Office of Net Assessment on proliferation issues. Mr. Sokolski has served as a consultant on proliferation issues to the intelligence community's National Intelligence Council, and as a member of the Central Intelligence Agency's Senior Advisory Panel.